India’s wholesale inflation, measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), slowed to 2.05% in March, down from 2.38% in February, according to new data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
The rise in March was mainly due to higher prices of manufactured goods. But compared to the previous month, overall wholesale prices actually fell by 0.19%, mainly because food, fuel, and power became cheaper.
Retail inflation—which affects consumers directly—is also slowly coming down. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now lowered its inflation forecast for 2025-26 from 4.2% to 4%, thanks to a better outlook for food prices.
“Inflation fell in January and February because food prices dropped a lot,” said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra. “Things are looking better now for food prices.”
He explained that worries about the rabi crop (winter crop) are now under control, with good estimates for wheat and pulses production. Strong harvests from the kharif season (monsoon crop) are also helping bring food prices down.
“Our latest survey shows that people expect inflation to stay low over the next few months and the coming year. This should help keep overall inflation steady,” he added.
Falling crude oil prices are also helping keep inflation in check. But global market ups and downs, and unexpected weather changes, still pose some risks.
If everything goes as expected, including a normal monsoon, the RBI predicts consumer inflation for the year 2025-26 to stay around 4%. The breakdown by quarter is:
3.6% in Q1, 3.9% in Q2 ,3.8% in Q3, 4.4% in Q4
The RBI believes the risks to this forecast are balanced for now.
What is WPI?
stands for Wholesale Price Index.
It’s an economic indicator that measures the average change in the prices of goods sold in bulk and traded between businesses, rather than directly to consumers.
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