Sensex, Nifty End Flat Amid High Volatility Ahead Of India-US Trade Deal & Bihar Results

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Indian stock markets ended nearly flat on Thursday after a choppy session with swings of almost 600 points. The Sensex closed at 84,478 and Nifty at 25,884 as investors stayed cautious ahead of the India-US trade deal and Bihar election results. Despite positive cues, profit-booking capped gains. Analysts expect markets to consolidate until stronger triggers emerge.

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Indian stock indices ended almost unchanged on Thursday after a highly volatile session marked by sharp intraday swings. Traders showed caution as they awaited two major developments — the expected India-US trade agreement and the outcome of the Bihar assembly elections, with vote counting scheduled for Friday.

The Sensex closed at 84,478.67, up a modest 12.16 points (0.014%), while the Nifty finished at 25,884.90, rising 9.10 points (0.035%). The session saw significant fluctuations, with the Sensex climbing to 84,919 at its peak and falling to 84,253 at the day’s low, reflecting the market’s nervousness.

Even though the gains were marginal, both benchmarks extended their winning streak for the fourth consecutive day. Early optimism driven by global cues and selective buying faded as traders booked profits at higher levels, limiting further upside.

Volatility Prompts Cautious Approach

Analysts noted that mixed global cues, geopolitical uncertainties, and upcoming domestic events added to the market’s instability. Amruta Shinde, Technical and Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, advised traders to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy while using strict stop-loss measures.

She said, “Volatility is expected to continue, and traders should avoid aggressive positions. Partial profit booking during rallies will help manage risk in the current environment.”

Market Looking for Fresh Momentum

According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, the market is searching for new triggers that could help push indices to fresh record highs. He said the impact of the Bihar election results has already been mostly absorbed by the markets based on exit polls.

“With the Bihar outcome largely priced in, there are no strong political triggers for a sustained rally. However, if the results differ from expectations, markets may react sharply,” he added.

Vijayakumar highlighted the possible India-US trade deal as a key driver to watch. The agreement could remove penal tariffs and reduce reciprocal duties, potentially improving trade ties and boosting investor confidence.

He also pointed to a sharp decline in India’s retail inflation, which fell to 0.25% in October, raising hopes of a rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee in December. Despite this, he warned that the transmission of lower rates into the broader economy remains slow.

Vijayakumar added that the market may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. He said if several positive factors come together — such as a favourable trade deal, supportive global cues, and political stability — short-covering could drive a strong rally. However, high valuations and continued foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling may limit long-term upside.

Market Performance Over Recent Years

Indian markets have delivered steady gains over the past few years. In 2025, both the Sensex and Nifty have risen about 8% so far. In 2024, the indices posted gains of around 9–10%, and in 2023, they recorded impressive returns of 16–17%. In contrast, 2022 saw modest growth of only 3%.

Nifty Faces Resistance at 26,000

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said the Nifty held a positive bias through most of the trading session. However, the index struggled as it approached the psychologically important 26,000 level, triggering profit-booking.

“The Nifty managed to stay above 25,900 for most of the day, but selling pressure near 26,000 wiped out a large part of the gains,” he said. The index eventually closed slightly below the 25,900 mark, reflecting the cautious sentiment.

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