Beijing: China has recorded its lowest number of births since 1949, and its population has now fallen for the fourth consecutive year. This is not just a statistical change—it signals a deep structural shift in the world’s second-largest economy.
What Does the Data Show?
New data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that only 7.92 million babies were born in 2025, a 17% drop from the previous year. At the same time, total population fell by 3.39 million, while deaths reached 11.31 million—one of the highest figures in decades.
Why Is This Happening?
The decline reflects long-term and present-day pressures on Chinese families:
The decades-long one-child policy changed family-size norms.
Rising costs of housing, education, and childcare discourage larger families.
Fewer young people are choosing to marry.
Economic uncertainty and job pressure are high.
Women face growing career costs after childbirth.
What Does It Mean for China?
Experts say the consequences will be far-reaching:
Economic Growth:
Su Yue, Principal Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warns that a shrinking workforce will slow productivity and growth.Ageing Pressure:
Yuan Xin, Vice-President of the China Population Association, notes that the rapidly rising elderly population will strain pensions and healthcare.Consumer Demand:
Su Yue points out that fewer young families will weaken long-term domestic consumption.Fiscal Stress:
Yuan Xin cautions that government spending on social welfare will rise while the future tax base shrinks.Global Standing:
Analysts believe prolonged demographic decline could erode China’s economic competitiveness globally.
China’s population decline is no longer a future risk—it is a present reality.
Unless deeper economic and social reforms make family life more affordable and secure, the country’s demographic slowdown could become one of the biggest constraints on its growth in the decades ahead.
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