Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake Up Tight Canadian Election Race

Canada Election: Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake Up Tight Canadian Election Race

OTTAWA — Just days ahead of Canada’s federal election, former U.S. President Donald Trump has re-emerged as a central figure in the campaign, reigniting tensions that Liberal leader Mark Carney says demand a strong national response.

Prime Minister Carney, who triggered the election last month, has called for a decisive mandate to confront Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric — including threats of increased tariffs and controversial remarks about turning Canada into the “51st state.”

While the Liberals initially led comfortably in the polls, that margin has narrowed amid growing voter concerns about inflation, crime, and housing — issues championed by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. However, Trump’s latest comments may once again shift the campaign narrative.

On Wednesday, Trump declared that the United States “does not need Canadian-made autos” and floated the idea of hiking tariffs on Canadian vehicle imports — a move that drew immediate condemnation from Carney.

“President Trump repeated his attacks on Canada. He said he doesn’t want Canada to play any part in the North American auto industry,” Carney told supporters at a rally in Port Moody, British Columbia. “So, I will be equally clear: this is Canada — we decide what happens here. Yesterday was more proof that the old relationship with the United States is over.”

Carney pledged tens of billions of dollars in new spending to reduce Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S., which currently purchases about 75% of Canadian exports.

As the election looms on Monday, a new rolling poll conducted by CTV News, the Globe and Mail, and Nanos Research showed the Liberals holding 42.9% support, with the Conservatives close behind at 39.3%. The New Democratic Party trails at 7.2%.

The tightening race — down to a 3.6-point gap from 5.6 points just a day earlier — raises the likelihood of another Liberal minority government, meaning Carney could need support from smaller parties to remain in power.

“Voters may be shifting their attention back to pocketbook issues — high prices, crime, and housing,” said Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba. “That benefits the Conservatives.”

Conservative leader Poilievre hammered that message home Thursday in Halifax, vowing to cancel electric-vehicle mandates and accusing the Liberals of overseeing a term of rising costs and insecurity.

“We can’t afford a fourth Liberal term of rising costs and crime,” he said.

Despite the close race, Carney remains voters’ top choice for prime minister, though Poilievre is steadily gaining ground, according to Nanos.

The Nanos survey of 1,307 Canadians, conducted from April 21 to 23, has a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Meanwhile, a separate Abacus Data poll conducted April 18–21 among 2,000 eligible voters showed the Liberals at 40% and the Conservatives at 37%. According to Abacus, Liberal support remained stable while the Conservatives dipped one point.

As election day nears, the campaign’s final stretch could be defined by how voters weigh domestic concerns against rising cross-border tensions.

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