China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion For The First Time As November Exports Strengthen

Beijing, December 8, 2025 — The Eastern Times Desk
China has recorded a historic jump in its external trade earnings, with the country’s trade surplus surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. The milestone comes after exports unexpectedly rebounded in November, easing concerns that global demand for Chinese goods was weakening.

Exports jump after October contraction

Official customs data released Monday show that exports rose 5.9% year-on-year in November, reversing a slight decline the previous month. Imports grew at a slower pace of just under 2%, widening the overall surplus and pushing cumulative earnings for the first 11 months of 2025 to $1.08 trillion — a level China has never crossed before.

November’s export value reached $330.3 billion, exceeding economists’ forecasts and signalling stronger demand in several emerging markets. Imports totalled $218.6 billion.

US-bound shipments sink, but other markets expand

Despite the overall boost, exports to the United States continued to slump, plunging nearly 29% from a year earlier. This sustained decline reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, post-pandemic supply chain shifts and adjustments following years of tariff disputes.

However, China has steadily diversified its trade flow. Shipments to Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America strengthened, helping offset weak U.S. demand. Analysts say this shift highlights China’s increasing dependence on non-U.S. markets to maintain export momentum.

Trade truce yet to show full impact

The stronger-than-expected November figures arrive just weeks after Washington and Beijing agreed to a year-long trade truce during an October summit in South Korea. The U.S. rolled back selected tariffs, while China committed to easing export controls on rare earths.

Economists believe November’s export surge does not yet reflect the benefits of tariff reductions.
“The effects of the tariff cuts will likely become clearer in the coming months,” said Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for Greater China.

Manufacturing sector remains under pressure

Despite export gains, China’s industrial fundamentals appear fragile. The official manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth straight month in November, signalling weak domestic demand and subdued factory output.

Economists caution against interpreting the export recovery as a broad economic rebound, pointing to:

Persistent weakness in the property sector
Slower consumer spending
Rising financial strain on local governments

Beijing reinforces focus on advanced manufacturing

At an annual meeting held Monday, President Xi Jinping and senior leaders set the tone for economic planning in 2026. State media said China will prioritise:

Advanced manufacturing
High-tech, high-value exports
Industrial upgrading
Economic stability amid global uncertainty

The leadership reaffirmed a strategy of “pursuing progress while ensuring stability.”

China’s global export share expected to grow

Despite geopolitical tensions, analysts expect China’s role in global trade to expand. According to a forecast by Morgan Stanley, China’s share of global exports could rise to 16.5% by 2030, supported by strong performance in electric vehicles, robotics, batteries and next-generation manufacturing.

“China is positioned to gain more share in global exports despite protectionist pressures,” said Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Economist.

Outlook remains cautiously optimistic

With exports performing above expectations, China is on track to meet its around 5% GDP growth target for 2025. Analysts warn that the U.S.–China trade truce could prove temporary, but say the near-term export outlook remains stable.

China’s record surplus underscores both the strength of its manufacturing base and the structural shifts underway in global trade — where demand for Chinese goods is increasingly driven by markets beyond the United States.

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