2025 Papal Conclave: Key Highlights And Expectations For Pope Election

Key Highlights of the 2025 Papal Conclave

If Roman Catholic cardinals fail to elect a new pope by the third day of next week’s conclave, it signals a deviation from plan. Short conclaves, typically lasting a couple of days, convey unity, and the cardinals will be keen to avoid projecting division or a Church in disarray following Pope Francis’ death last month.

“Three days at most,” Salvadoran Cardinal Gregorio Rosa Chavez predicted confidently ahead of the secret ballot, set to begin May 7 in the Sistine Chapel. The last 10 conclaves averaged 3.2 days, with none exceeding five. The 2005 and 2013 elections, which selected Popes Benedict XVI and Francis, concluded in just two days.

The conclave continues with voting rounds until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority, marked by white smoke announcing a new pope. “More ballots mean greater difficulty, but signs point to a swift process,” said Giovanni Vian, a Christian history professor at Venice’s Ca’ Foscari University.

Among the 133 cardinals expected to participate, some, like Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, are seen as frontrunners, while others may emerge during pre-conclave discussions known as general congregations.

Key Decisions

The first vote often acts as a trial, with scattered votes reflecting respect or camaraderie before serious balloting begins on day two, revealing the strength of leading candidates. From day two, voting occurs twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon. If no pope is chosen after three days, a day-long prayer pause is mandated.

A prolonged conclave could indicate faltering support for frontrunners or unfamiliarity among cardinals, many of whom were appointed by Francis to distant dioceses. “A lengthy process suggests cardinals don’t know each other well,” said Jesuit priest and Vatican commentator Rev. Thomas Reese.

Influential Figures

While cardinals deny campaigning, believing the Holy Spirit guides the process, informal discussions occur over meals at the Vatican’s Santa Marta residence. Influential “grand electors” can shape outcomes, as seen in 1978 when Vienna’s Franz Koenig and Polish-American John Krol rallied support for Karol Wojtyla, who became Pope John Paul II in three days.

Ahead of this conclave, Germany’s Gerhard Mueller has been vocal in traditionalist circles, while Canada’s Michael Czerny advocates for Francis’ moderate vision. Cardinals are sworn to secrecy, but post-conclave leaks often reveal details.

In 2013, Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, not initially a favorite, gained traction after a compelling speech, overtaking Italian Angelo Scola by the third vote. A rumor about his health was dispelled, and he was elected Pope Francis on the fifth vote. In 2005, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger led from the start, becoming Pope Benedict XVI by the fourth ballot.

Cardinals aim for a smooth process. “No pope by day two isn’t a crisis, but no white smoke by day three raises concerns,” Reese noted.

Highlights:

Conclave Goal: Pope by day 3 (May 7, 2025 start); longer suggests disunity.
History: Last 10 conclaves averaged 3.2 days; 2005, 2013 took 2 days.
Voting: Two-thirds majority needed; 4 votes/day from day 2; prayer pause after day 3 if no pope.
Frontrunners: Cardinals Parolin, Tagle; others may emerge.
Challenge: 80% of 133 cardinals, Francis appointees, lack conclave experience.
Influencers: “Grand electors” like Mueller (traditionalist), Czerny (moderate) may sway votes.
Secrecy: Voting confidential, but leaks common (e.g., Francis 2013, Benedict 2005).
Concern: No pope by day 3 signals issues, per Rev. Thomas Reese.